Inconclusive talks affect the ruble

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The Russian ruble has fallen on the Moscow Exchange and Forex after the end of Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul, The Moscow Times reports.

The yuan exchange rate jumped by almost 2% in the first three hours of trading on Thursday, to 11.1485 rubles — the highest since the end of May, before rolling back to 11.04 rubles at 17:39 Baku time. The dollar exchange rate on the over-the-counter market rose above 79 rubles for the first time in three weeks and reached 79.55 (+1.5%). The euro rose to 93.5 rubles — the highest value in the last 11 weeks.

“Stock market players are disappointed with the formal nature of the round of Russian-Ukrainian talks held in Istanbul the day before,” says Natalia Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. The third meeting of the delegations of Moscow and Kyiv lasted only 40 minutes, and as a result, the parties agreed only to continue the exchange of prisoners and bodies of the killed, as well as to form working groups in an online format. Ukraine insisted on a summit of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky, but the Kremlin, on behalf of Dmitry Peskov, said that this was still a long way off.

The stock market has also become “despondent,” Milchakova notes: the Moscow Exchange index, which includes securities of four dozen of the largest Russian companies, is falling by 1%, losing 60 billion rubles in terms of capitalization. Gazprom fell by 1.2%, Sberbank by 0.94%.

Investors are selling rubles and buying up currency in the expectation that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will sharply reduce the key rate — from 20% to 18% this Friday, PSB analysts write. According to their forecast, by the end of the year the ruble could weaken by almost 10%, to 12 rubles per yuan.

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